Dein erstes Forum » , and I trust my boys.Duffy is 4-6 wit

Earlier this week, we learned from one plugged-in agent via one plugged-in reporter that Aroldis Chapman is looking for $100 million. The day might come when we should talk about whether Aroldis Chapman is worth $100 million, but more urgently, we should really talk about that rumor construction: Looking for.Chapman is looking for $100 million. Wilson Ramos plans to seek a four- or five-year contract. Carlos Gomez will be seeking a long, multiyear deal -- perhaps even five years.Is there any power in these aspirational clauses?To figure that out, we dove deep into the past almost-decade of hot stove rumors, collecting every rumor we could find of a free agent seeking, looking for or asking for anything of quantifiable value. We searched MLB Trade Rumors archives, along with the Twitter archives of Buster Olney, Ken Rosenthal and Jon Heyman. (We would have continued with other individual writers, but we found that most of these reporters tweets had already been aggregated by MLBTR and showed up in our initial searches.)The result was a spreadsheet with 78 lines of demands, some every bit as juicy at the time as Chapmans nine-figure request is now, some every bit as guffaw-inducing as Gomez five-year ask. As a body of literature, these 78 rumors cover the full range of hedgy hot stove linguistics: the hyperbole, the suggestion, the tease, the peek at an agenda. As a collection of numbers, though, they reveal some actual truth.The smallest rumor in our data was the shortstop Adam Everett seeking $3 million in the winter before the 2010 season. (Or, perhaps, Brian Shouse and Chris Capuano seeking two years.) The largest was Robinson Cano, seeking $305 million in his free agency before the 2014 season. (To simplify, well refer to every offseason by the year of the season following it. So you are living in the 2017 offseason right now.)In some cases, players sought different things throughout the course of their free agency; for our spreadsheet, we went with whatever demand was the most. In some cases, these demands were expressed as a range, e.g., Mike Morse is looking for $7m-$8m. For our spreadsheet, we logged it at the lowest figure in the range. So: highest demand on record, but lowest end of defined ranges.Alongside our seeking column was a got column, and alongside that we judged whether the player got what he sought. Each outcome could be rated one of four ways:+: The player got more than he asked for. Prince Fielder, for instance, was seeking $200 million. (I dont see that happening.) The Tigers signed him for $214 million.Yeah: The player got more or less exactly what he was asking for. Shin-Soo Choo was seeking a contract worth more than Jayson Werths $126 million deal. (Well thats hilarious.) Choo got seven years and $130 million.Eh: The player didnt get his target, but the request and the result were in the same region. It looks, in other words, like the spread of a normal negotiation. Wei-Yin Chen was seeking five years, $100 million. (Hes not worth half that!) He ended up getting five years, $80 million.LOL: The players demands were either so high that they look silly in retrospect, or the player was so stubborn that he ended up getting frozen out of the market. Jason Variteks agent suggested Varitek should get a deal comparable to Jorge Posadas four-year, $52.4MM contract. He would sign for one year and $5 million.We actually started with 80 players, but Joakim Sorias request (a no-trade clause, he didnt get it) didnt lend itself to the rest of this analysis, and Hisashi Iwakumas demands from the As were anomalous because Iwakuma had a posting fee attached to him. He was willing to go back to Japan and hit free agency without a posting fee the following year.Of the 78 free agents remaining:+: 4 playersYeah: 20Eh: 27LOL: 27This isnt as clean as wed hoped. There are enough LOLs -- more than a third of the outcomes -- that we have to take seriously the possibility that we shouldnt take the players demands (or his agents demands, or the second-hand telephoning of his supposed demands) seriously. Most day-to-day human interaction depends on our faith that people arent outright lying to us, that the waiter isnt copying down our credit card number so he can steal our identity, that the cop is a cop, that I really did put together this spreadsheet that I keep claiming to be working off of, that our mom really does love us. If a third of these players are seeking something totally unrealistic, it causes something close to a crisis of confidence in the whole thing.On the other hand, the majority of these asks -- nearly two-thirds -- are perfectly reasonable, either as legitimate targets or as honest positions in a negotiation process.So what do we do with an individual goal such as Chapmans? We could decide it lacks good faith, but as noted in the examples above, even in the rare case when the player exceeds his demands, there will be people who find the target laughable. We are, as a population, horrible at putting player demands in perspective. Were always a few years too late to adjust our brains to the actual market.We could take into account the agent involved and decide whether hes an honest broker of rumored demands, but to kill that idea: all four of the examples I gave above shared the same agent, Scott Boras. You cant throw out the Variteks without losing the Choos.So we prefer to keep everybody together and trust that the large cohort would quiet that noise. We took each players goal and calculated what percentage of the goal he ended up getting paid. Some players were asking for years, so we looked at how many years he got. Some were asking for money, so we looked at how much money he got. (Usually we used average annual value. For three players -- Fielder, Ervin Santana and Ricky Nolasco -- only total contract dollars sought were available in our rumors, so we used total contract dollars.) Some demands were expressed as both -- as when Jhonny Peralta was looking for four years and $56 million, or Hisanori Takahashi was seeking three years and $12 million -- so we calculated both outcomes (years and AAV) separately.Heres what we found: the median outcome for a player who was looking for X years was: 87.5 percent of X. A player who asked for three years got, on average, 2.625 years. (The median result was actually Chris Davis, who asked for eight years and got seven.)And the median outcome for a player who was looking for X dollars was: 87.5 percent of X. Exactly the same! A player who asked for $18 million per year got, on average, $15.75 million.That puts Aroldis Chapman in line to get $87.5 million, and I wouldnt be surprised at all. It will still come as a shock to the system, but most precedent-setting contracts do, until the precedent is set and we quickly get used to them.The concept of seeking a specific contract is, of course, total nonsense. This isnt an eBay sale. Theres no buy it now button, and if a player who seeks $100 million gets an offer for $100 million, hes going to start seeking one thats worth $105 million.But the linguistics of the offseason arent arbitrary. A player seeks a certain contract for a lot of reasons: he wants to anchor the negotiations at a certain range, or he wants to encourage comparisons between himself and another player. His contract will ultimately reflect the value that the sport places on him. The contract he seeks reflects the value that he places on himself. Theres meaning in it. Theres also, broadly speaking, useful information to the consumer of the rumor.A few leftover details that might be relevant:Why median instead of mean?We went with median instead of mean because a few extremely unrealistic players dragged down the average. That might or might not have been the right decision, so here are the mean outcomes: For years, the average player got 76 percent of what he was seeking; for dollars, he got 79 percent.Does the date of the rumor matter?It does! Rumors from November, October and September turn out to be closer to the actual signed contracts than rumors from December and onward. This goes counter to my hypothesis that agents would start high but settle into more realistic territory once actual negotiations have happened. My new hypothesis is that once December comes along, the data starts to gather the unsigned players who are simply unrealistic about themselves, or whose stubbornness will end up suppressing their salaries. It might also be that the later the offseason gets, the more likely an outrageous request will be talked about and reported. (Also, the difference is small.)Do I have a favorite? I do have a favorite! In the offseason before the 2009 season, Adam Dunn asked for four years and $56 million. That was apparently so absurd that even a rival agent mocked it, saying he wouldnt get more than $5 million per year. Dunn ended up settling for two years and $20 million, and over the next two years he did almost exactly what he had done before his free agency:2007-2008: 80 HR, .919 OPS, 206 RBIs, 2.5 WAR 2009-2010: 76 HR, .910 OPS, 208 RBIs, 2.0 WARSo he hits free agency again and asks for ... four years and $60 million. The best explanation here is that two years earlier, Dunn had an honest view of himself and his place in the market. The world rejected it, but Dunn meant what he said and he held to it. Given a second chance to describe himself to the world, he chose the same words, the same story. What Dunn sought, he sought with total honesty.The second time, he got paid four years and $56 million.Michael Rasmussen Red Wings Jersey . The All-Pro lineman got the leg bent under him while trying to make a tackle during the first half of a 22-20 overtime loss at Miami on Thursday night. The medical staff initially thought hed torn the ligament, and the test a day later in Cincinnati confirmed it. Terry Sawchuk Jersey . "Theyve both been real good," said Babcock. "Havent changed our minds." A decision has seemingly been made - Sundays Group B-deciding tilt against Finland ahead - but it could not have been an easy one. Price opened the tournament with a sturdy 19-save performance against the Norwegians, yielding just one goal. http://www.redwingshockeyauthentic.com/curtis-joseph-jersey/ . JOHNS, N. Danny DeKeyser Jersey . On Tuesday, Ottawa placed forward Cory Conacher and defenceman Joe Corvo on waivers as trade rumours swirl around the Senators. Dylan Larkin Jersey . -- Charline Labonte couldnt have asked for a better homecoming.DETROIT -- Justin Verlander habitually gives the Kansas City Royals fits. Danny Duffy has done that to everyone over the past three months.Their matchup at Comerica Park on Tuesday, when the Detroit Tigers play host to the Royals, has all the makings of a stellar pitching duel.Verlander (12-6, 3.42 ERA) has re-established himself as the Tigers ace, and he enters his 25th start of the season in top form. He has recorded six consecutive quality outings, including a seven-inning performance at Seattle on Wednesday when he held the Mariners to one run.Matched against Mariners ace Felix Hernandez that night, Verlander wound up with a no-decision. Verlander, who hasnt lost since June 26 against the Cleveland Indians, could face a similar situation on Tuesday.Most pitchers, when their counterpart is well-known or one of the better pitchers in the league, it gives you a little more adrenaline, Detroit manager Brad Ausmus said. I think that probably happened when Verlander and Felix pitched against each other.Verlander ranks second in the America League in strikeouts with 170 and fourth in opponents batting average at .216.The Royals know all too well how effective Verlander can be. He has 22 career wins against them, the most by an active pitcher. He also won both of his starts against Kansas City this season while notching 17 strikeouts.Duffy isnt focused on the pitching matchup.Its fun competing against those guys in general, Duffy said. I dont look at who Im going up against because I dont have to get him out.Duffy (9-1, 2.82 ERA) was moved into the rotation on May 15 and has emerged as the RRoyals most reliable arm.dddddddddddd He is 9-1 with a 2.79 ERA as a starter, including his current eight-game winning streak. He recorded his first career complete game in his last start against the Chicago White Sox on Thursday.Ive been really simplified with everything. It sounds super boring, but thats just kind of where Im at, he said. Trust is crucial. Trusting your stuff and trusting whos behind you. I have all of that. I trust my stuff, and I trust my boys.Duffy is 4-6 with a 3.43 ERA in 16 career outings against Detroit, including four appearances this season.Hes always had great stuff, and he seems to have pitched well against us for the most part, Ausmus said. The big thing is hes really throwing strikes now. Hes always had a real good fastball, but hes throwing strikes and hes become what a lot of people thought he would be, a dominant left-handed starter.Ausmus club has been hit hard by injuries recently, and another one cropped up to a premier player on Monday. First baseman Miguel Cabrera left the Tigers 3-1 loss to the Royals prior to the fifth inning with a left biceps strain. He was injured reaching for an errant throw by starting pitcher Daniel Norris in the first inning.Ausmus considers the injury minor and said Cabrera might even return to the lineup for Tuesday nights game. Detroit already has three starting position players on the disabled list -- center fielder Cameron Maybin, third baseman Nick Castellanos and shortstop Jose Iglesias. ' ' '